Hello RXers
I was very interested in Tomorrow's Newspaper as he has a fantastic posted record here. I grabbed these records off the site.
2003 359 plays +55 units
2004 976 plays +75.7 units
2005 841 plays +61.5 units
2006 473 plays +2 units
I then loosely-tabulated record in baseball as 1433-1216 for 54.10% (taking the number of won units and converting to a -110 sport).
This record is very imprecise as I likely skipped some postseasons and also likely did not get the ultimate plays of the season. I also just divided the total units by two as it appears most are 2 units but still 1 and 3-unit plays are in there.
However, anyone following Tomorrow's Newspaper will not come anywhere close to this record as his picks are not Widely Availalbe at a good number of books. They are rogue, meaning they are off-market prices at a specific book which likely has low limits and even if one or two can hit the line, most others will be froze out (Bodog, Nine.com, Betonsports come to mind). In one thread, someone asked TN where he got a line and TN said he got it from a local, which is as rogue as they get.
I looked at 9 random games in 2004 and then looked at Donbest line archives and few were available. Even shopping the line heavily I could not get close. I have the dates if anyone (I think peer review is a very good thing.)
4/13/04
Det +115....best I saw was +109
Hou -125....best I saw was -127
LA +130....best I saw +129
4/11/04
Philly +133.....+124
Col +148......+145
TX +140.....+140
4/08/04
SD -135.....-137
SDU9 -115....-114
AZ -150.........-156
In 2005 I saw a post where TN mentioned that he doesnt bet at Bodog anymore . I looked at maybe 20 lines and they were far less shopped this year. Here is a list of how far offmarket the picks were: 8, 0, 0, 5, 5, 0, -1 (shopping could've got BETTER than TN), 1, 0, 0, -5, -4, 3, 2, -3, 2, -2, 2, 1, 0, 1, 5, 0, 0. So it appears TN would do a little less than a cent (.8 cents) better than anyone following here. I should note that I was shopping too here! So using Heritage and Intertops and any rogueish lines and I would still do a little worse. Were someone to have followed TN at more standard outs, they would likely have done maybe 3 cents worse and their results would be significantly lower.
For 2006 TN is back into heavily rogue lines. These picks were in the RX tracker. On 6/6/06 he had Clevel EV at Betonsports and the Widely Available is -110. On 6/11 he had Cleveland +125 at BoS and WA was +118, he had Toronto -103 at Bodog and WA was -109. I looked at other picks and many were 2 and 3 cents better than the BEST book I could find.
I should say, wagering into shopped lines isn't a bad thing. For Tomorrow's Newspaper himself, the ability to shop and have a good handicapping opinioin are very powerful tools. Its just to emphasize that shopping and getting a great offmarket number is just as important as the opinion itself. And followers must be extremely careful.
What does this all mean? If someone is following TN and can't get these extremely rogue lines they will do much worse than him. How much worse? I'm not sure. Assume you get 4 cents worse per pick, youd drop a full 1% (just to make sure I did this correctly I simply multiplied .04 * the number of losses 1337 above to get 42 units instead of 96 units and the reconverted....getting 53.10%). I should note that from whereabout I come from 53% is a fantastic achievement, especially over so many picks.
One extremely important factor, If TN is posting more available lines this year because of today's offshore environment and concerns about using unsafe books, he and his followers can expect to do far worse than in the past. No Bodog square lines, no Betonsports sitting still for a half-hour after a side is steamed, no Guido on the corner locals (a REALLY interesting study would be to see how TN did at Pinny and then check out how he did at the rogue books. Its quite possible he could, for example, be a modest loser at Pinny, and really have destroyed the rogues). I am going to predict that if TN only posts Pinny lines or other A books, he will hit the equivalent of 52%.
Joeflex
ps if you think any assumptions or any of my thumbnail sketches don't accurately reflect TN's record, or any errors, I welcome your comments.
I was very interested in Tomorrow's Newspaper as he has a fantastic posted record here. I grabbed these records off the site.
2003 359 plays +55 units
2004 976 plays +75.7 units
2005 841 plays +61.5 units
2006 473 plays +2 units
I then loosely-tabulated record in baseball as 1433-1216 for 54.10% (taking the number of won units and converting to a -110 sport).
This record is very imprecise as I likely skipped some postseasons and also likely did not get the ultimate plays of the season. I also just divided the total units by two as it appears most are 2 units but still 1 and 3-unit plays are in there.
However, anyone following Tomorrow's Newspaper will not come anywhere close to this record as his picks are not Widely Availalbe at a good number of books. They are rogue, meaning they are off-market prices at a specific book which likely has low limits and even if one or two can hit the line, most others will be froze out (Bodog, Nine.com, Betonsports come to mind). In one thread, someone asked TN where he got a line and TN said he got it from a local, which is as rogue as they get.
I looked at 9 random games in 2004 and then looked at Donbest line archives and few were available. Even shopping the line heavily I could not get close. I have the dates if anyone (I think peer review is a very good thing.)
4/13/04
Det +115....best I saw was +109
Hou -125....best I saw was -127
LA +130....best I saw +129
4/11/04
Philly +133.....+124
Col +148......+145
TX +140.....+140
4/08/04
SD -135.....-137
SDU9 -115....-114
AZ -150.........-156
In 2005 I saw a post where TN mentioned that he doesnt bet at Bodog anymore . I looked at maybe 20 lines and they were far less shopped this year. Here is a list of how far offmarket the picks were: 8, 0, 0, 5, 5, 0, -1 (shopping could've got BETTER than TN), 1, 0, 0, -5, -4, 3, 2, -3, 2, -2, 2, 1, 0, 1, 5, 0, 0. So it appears TN would do a little less than a cent (.8 cents) better than anyone following here. I should note that I was shopping too here! So using Heritage and Intertops and any rogueish lines and I would still do a little worse. Were someone to have followed TN at more standard outs, they would likely have done maybe 3 cents worse and their results would be significantly lower.
For 2006 TN is back into heavily rogue lines. These picks were in the RX tracker. On 6/6/06 he had Clevel EV at Betonsports and the Widely Available is -110. On 6/11 he had Cleveland +125 at BoS and WA was +118, he had Toronto -103 at Bodog and WA was -109. I looked at other picks and many were 2 and 3 cents better than the BEST book I could find.
I should say, wagering into shopped lines isn't a bad thing. For Tomorrow's Newspaper himself, the ability to shop and have a good handicapping opinioin are very powerful tools. Its just to emphasize that shopping and getting a great offmarket number is just as important as the opinion itself. And followers must be extremely careful.
What does this all mean? If someone is following TN and can't get these extremely rogue lines they will do much worse than him. How much worse? I'm not sure. Assume you get 4 cents worse per pick, youd drop a full 1% (just to make sure I did this correctly I simply multiplied .04 * the number of losses 1337 above to get 42 units instead of 96 units and the reconverted....getting 53.10%). I should note that from whereabout I come from 53% is a fantastic achievement, especially over so many picks.
One extremely important factor, If TN is posting more available lines this year because of today's offshore environment and concerns about using unsafe books, he and his followers can expect to do far worse than in the past. No Bodog square lines, no Betonsports sitting still for a half-hour after a side is steamed, no Guido on the corner locals (a REALLY interesting study would be to see how TN did at Pinny and then check out how he did at the rogue books. Its quite possible he could, for example, be a modest loser at Pinny, and really have destroyed the rogues). I am going to predict that if TN only posts Pinny lines or other A books, he will hit the equivalent of 52%.
Joeflex
ps if you think any assumptions or any of my thumbnail sketches don't accurately reflect TN's record, or any errors, I welcome your comments.
